The evolutionary path of automobility in BRICS countries

• Published in: Journal of transport geography 2020-05, Vol.85, p.102739-10, Article 102739
• Main Authors: Seum, Stefan, Schulz, Angelika, Kuhnimhof, Tobias
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: BRICS countries; Emerging economies; New technology; Ownership; Policies; Private car use; Qualitative analysis; Saturation; Technology assessment; Transport demand; Transportation policy; Values; Vehicle kilometers traveled
• ISSN: 0966-6923; 1873-1236
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jtrangeo.2020.102739

Projections indicate that global transport may more than double by 2050. Future car stock and use are of paramount importance for drafting policy measures and for assessing emerging technology developments. This paper uses a unique forecasting approach combining quantitative data and qualitative expert judgements. Based on the historic development of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) in four OECD countries, the approach assesses potential future development paths for BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and derives VKT saturation levels for these. For this purpose, we investigated eight factors with influence on car ownership and car use. A group of experts established factor values for the BRICS countries and compared these to the factor values in the OECD countries. Subsequently, we linked the factor values to levels of car use. Among the BRICS countries, we expect the lowest VKT saturation levels for India and China, mainly but not exclusively due to their spatial structures and transport policies. Spatial structures, socio-economic legacies and policies, among other factors, are leading to higher expected VKT saturation levels in Brazil, Russia and South Africa. Those countries also face challenges to establish alternatives to the private car. •A unique methodology to predict vehicle kilometer traveled (VKT) is presented.•A combination of quantitative data and expert judgement is used.•Eight societal factors are considered that influence the VKT in a country.•An expert panel evaluated the countries' characteristics according to the 8 factors.•VKT saturation levels for BRICS countries are presented.