Campaign Effects and the Elusive Swing Voter in Modern Machine Politics

Are vote-choice buying attempts successful? Much research across the social sciences argues that political machines expertly turn citizens into clients, undermining core aspects of democracy. Using insights from behavioral theories of vote choice, I argue that standard partisan campaigns can diminis...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Comparative political studies 2021-01, Vol.54 (1), p.77-109
Main Author: Greene, Kenneth F.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Behavior
Campaigns
Citizens
Clients
Democracy
Elections
Errors
Experiments
Machine politics
Optimism
Partisanship
Political attitudes
Politics
Social sciences
Voter behavior
Voting
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Summary:Are vote-choice buying attempts successful? Much research across the social sciences argues that political machines expertly turn citizens into clients, undermining core aspects of democracy. Using insights from behavioral theories of vote choice, I argue that standard partisan campaigns can diminish vote-choice buying’s efficiency. Machines face a targeting problem: Local brokers identify good clients using long-term markers but then campaigns shift many citizens’ vote-relevant attitudes in ways that brokers cannot detect, leading to targeting errors. Vote-choice buying remains effective on recipients who are unmoved by the campaigns, but this group is small where campaigns are influential. Tests using panel surveys from Mexico’s 2000 and 2012 elections measure vote-buying attempts with direct questions and list experiments, employ various measures of campaign influence, and rely on new and existing estimation techniques. The findings yield a more optimistic view of the quality of elections in new democracies than current literature implies.
ISSN:0010-4140
1552-3829
DOI:10.1177/0010414020919919