Large Atmospheric Waves Will Get Stronger, While Small Waves Will Get Weaker by the End of the 21st Century

• Published in: Geophysical research letters 2020-11, Vol.47 (22), p.n/a
• Main Authors: Chemke, R., Ming, Y.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anthropogenic factors; Atmospheric waves; Climate; climate change; Climate variability; Future climates; Growth rate; Human influences; large‐scale flow; Static stability; Tropical environments; Vertical stability; Waves; Weather; Winds; Zonal winds
• ISSN: 0094-8276; 1944-8007
• DOI: 10.1029/2020GL090441

Atmospheric waves control the weather and climate variability, by affecting winds, temperature, and precipitation. It is thus critical to assess their future response to anthropogenic emissions. Most previous studies investigated the projected regional changes in the intensity of atmospheric waves, by pooling across waves with different scales. However, the waves' projected changes might vary with their scale, and thus, their future climate impacts might also be scale dependent. Here we show that both in the tropics and midlatitudes while large waves will get stronger, small waves will get weaker by the end of this century. Thus, investigating the response of atmospheric waves to human activity by pooling across all wave scales masks the future climate impacts of large waves. We further reveal that the opposite response of large and small waves stems from the opposite effect of static stability and zonal wind on the growth rate of the different waves. Key Points By the end of the 21st century large tropical and midlatitudes waves will get stronger, while small waves will get weaker The opposite response of large and small waves to anthropogenic emissions stems from the waves' opposite growth rate response Studying future wave changes by pooling all scales together masks the different climate impacts of large and small waves