Predicting the Impact of Country-Related Risks on Cost Overrun for Overseas Infrastructure Projects

AbstractGiven the complexity of overseas infrastructure projects (OIPs), difficulty in managing country-related risks commonly causes cost overruns. Thus, there is a pressing need for proactively predicting the impact of country-related risks to enable reasonable decision making in the early proposa...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of construction engineering and management 2021-02, Vol.147 (2)
Main Authors: Zhu, Fengfeng, Hu, Hao, Xu, Feng, Tang, Ning
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Construction companies
Decision making
Impact prediction
Infrastructure
Technical Papers
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Summary:AbstractGiven the complexity of overseas infrastructure projects (OIPs), difficulty in managing country-related risks commonly causes cost overruns. Thus, there is a pressing need for proactively predicting the impact of country-related risks to enable reasonable decision making in the early proposal stage. Different from the previous studies that heavily relied on a large number of sample points, this research proposes a case-based reasoning (CBR) method capable of reliably predicting the impact of country-related risks on cost overruns for OIPs from a small size of sample points. Grey relational analysis (GRA) is applied twice to address the challenges associated with many variables. Finally, a case study is conducted to validate the reliability of the proposed method. Importantly, this research includes a structured process to develop CBR methods for prediction tailored to different construction companies, hence increasing the adaptability.
ISSN:0733-9364
1943-7862
DOI:10.1061/(ASCE)CO.1943-7862.0001959