Ensemble fuzzy MCDM for spatial assessment of flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria

Ibadan, one of the largest cities in West Africa, experiences recurrent flood hazards, causing severe damages to lives and properties. Although various flood susceptibility models have evolved to mitigate flood hazards in different parts of the world, model performances vary according to the peculia...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2020-12, Vol.104 (3), p.2277-2306
Main Authors: Tella, Abdulwaheed, Balogun, Abdul-Lateef
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Civil Engineering
Computation
Decision making
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Environmental Management
Flood control
Flood damage
Flood hazards
Flood mapping
Floods
Geographical information systems
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hazard mitigation
Hierarchies
Historic floods
Hydrogeology
Locations (working)
Model accuracy
Multiple criterion
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Rain
Rainfall
Runoff
Susceptibility
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Summary:Ibadan, one of the largest cities in West Africa, experiences recurrent flood hazards, causing severe damages to lives and properties. Although various flood susceptibility models have evolved to mitigate flood hazards in different parts of the world, model performances vary according to the peculiarity of the study area and conditioning factors. Therefore, specialized studies are essential to determine model performances for specific locations. This study develops an integrated spatial multi-criteria decision-making model to classify flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria. For the improvement of the weighting accuracy of the flood causative criteria, Fuzzy AHP (FAHP) was integrated with GIS for the weight computation and overlay process. Ten flood causative factors were evaluated using the AHP and FAHP models. Results indicate rainfall, runoff, and distance to stream as the most significant flood causative factors with FAHP and AHP weights of 22%, 18%, 16%, and 23%, 23%, 18%, respectively. The FAHP and AHP maps identified the southern region as the most susceptible, with the FAHP also highlighting the susceptibility of the central region. The models’ accuracies were validated by overlaying the AHP and FAHP maps with locations of previous flood occurrences in the study area. The Fuzzy AHP map had a 91% alignment with the historical flood locations while the AHP model produced a 45% match, confirming the higher accuracy of the FAHP model and suitability for flood susceptibility mapping in Nigeria and other West African cities.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-020-04272-6