Analysing the trend of rainfall in Asir region of Saudi Arabia using the family of Mann-Kendall tests, innovative trend analysis, and detrended fluctuation analysis

• Published in: Theoretical and applied climatology 2021, Vol.143 (1-2), p.823-841
• Main Authors: Mallick, Javed, Talukdar, Swapan, Alsubih, Majed, Salam, Roquia, Ahmed, Mohd, Kahla, Nabil Ben, Shamimuzzaman, Md
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Analysis; Annual rainfall; Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate science; Climatology; Comparative analysis; Comparative studies; Correlation coefficient; Correlation coefficients; Detection; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Irrigation water; Management; Original Paper; Precipitation variability; Rain; Rain and rainfall; Rainfall; Rainfall patterns; Rainfall trends; Rainfall variability; Resource management; Trend analysis; Trends; Waste Water Technology; Water; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Water resources; Water resources management; Weather; Weather stations
• ISSN: 0177-798X; 1434-4483
• DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03448-1

The present study is designed to analyse the annual rainfall variability and trend in 30 meteorological stations of the Asir region for the period of 1970–2017 using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, Modified Mann-Kendall (MMK) test, trend free pre-whitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW MK) test, and the innovative trend analysis (ITA). A comparative study among the trend detection techniques was performed using the correlation coefficient. The future rainfall trend based on the historical rainfall pattern was investigated by using detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Results of the MK test showed that 20 stations in the study area observed a negative trend, and out of these, nine stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. The findings of the MMK test showed that 23 stations recorded negative trends, and out of these, 18 stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. Based on the findings of the TFPW-MK test, 21 stations observed a negative trend, and among these, 10 stations had significant negative trends at the significance of 0.01. ITA detected 25 stations observing a negative trend, and out of these, 18 stations had significant negative trends at the significance level of 0.01. Based on the findings of the tests and their performance, the MMK test appeared as the best performing technique among the MK test family, while ITA appeared as the best trend detection technique among the four techniques because it outperformed ( p