Oh the places they’ll go: improving species distribution modelling for invasive forest pests in an uncertain world

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a valuable tool for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species across space and time. Maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) is a popular choice for SDM, but questions have been raised about how these models are developed. Without biologically infor...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Biological invasions 2021, Vol.23 (1), p.297-349
Main Authors: Srivastava, Vivek, Roe, Amanda D., Keena, Melody A., Hamelin, Richard C., Griess, Verena C.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Biomedical and Life Sciences
Complexity
Developmental Biology
Dispersal
Dispersion
Ecology
Entropy
Freshwater & Marine Ecology
Geographical distribution
Introduced species
Invasive species
Life Sciences
Maximum entropy
Modelling
Nonnative species
Original Paper
Pests
Plant Sciences
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Summary:Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a valuable tool for predicting the potential distribution of invasive species across space and time. Maximum entropy modelling (MaxEnt) is a popular choice for SDM, but questions have been raised about how these models are developed. Without biologically informed baseline assumptions, complex default SDM models could be selected, even though alternative settings may be more appropriate. Here we explored the effects of various SDM design strategies on distribution mapping of four forest invasive species (FIS) in Canada. We found that if we ignored the underlying FIS biology such as use of biologically relevant predictors, appropriate feature selection and inclusion of dispersal and biotic interactions when we developed our SDMs, we obtained complex SDMs (default) that provided an incomplete picture of the potential FIS invasion. We recommend simplifying SDM complexity and including biologically informed assumptions to achieve more accurate dispersal predictions, particularly when projecting FIS spread across time. We strongly encourage SDM users to perform species-specific tuning when modeling FIS distributions with MaxEnt to determine the best SDM design.
ISSN:1387-3547
1573-1464
DOI:10.1007/s10530-020-02372-9