The Effects of Autocratic Characteristics on Public Opinion toward Democracy Promotion Policies: A Conjoint Analysis

Abstract Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic tar...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Foreign policy analysis 2021-01, Vol.17 (1), p.140-161
Main Authors: Escribà-Folch, Abel, Muradova, Lala H, Rodon, Toni
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Analysis
Autocracy
Citizens
Coercion
Comparative analysis
Conjoint analysis
Democracy
Democratization
Elections
Frantz, Erica
Iraq
Libya
Military effectiveness
Petroleum
Policies
Public opinion
Respondents
Sanctions
Target selection
United Kingdom
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Summary:Abstract Does the level of public support for democracy promotion policies vary with the characteristics of potential autocratic targets? We conduct an experimental study with a conjoint design on a sample of 1,464 US citizens that manipulates several core characteristics of potential autocratic targets. We then compare citizens’ preferences with the cross-national evidence testing the determinants of democracy promotion success. We find that respondents support the use of coercive measures (military action and sanctions) precisely in contexts where, according to comparative research, these instruments are unlikely to foster democratization: oil-rich, exclusionary, personalistic regimes with no elections, and with no ties to the United States. Conversely, the characteristics driving public support for the use of democracy aid are more consistent with those favoring effectiveness: autocratic regimes with multi-party elections and with links to the United States. These findings have important policy implications by contributing to understand the micro-foundations of target selection.
ISSN:1743-8586
1743-8594
DOI:10.1093/fpa/oraa016