Future projection of maximum potential storm surge height at three major bays in Japan using the maximum potential intensity of a tropical cyclone

This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Climatic change 2021-02, Vol.164 (3-4), Article 25
Main Authors: Mori, Nobuhito, Ariyoshi, Nozomi, Shimura, Tomoya, Miyashita, Takuya, Ninomiya, Junichi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric Sciences
Bays
Climate change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Cyclones
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Extreme weather
Height
Hurricanes
Sea surface
Sea surface temperature
Storm surges
Storms
Surface temperature
Tidal waves
Tropical climate
Tropical cyclone intensities
Tropical cyclones
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Summary:This study developed an integrated model for the long-term assessment of extreme storm surge heights based on the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of a tropical cyclone, which is used to conduct future climatological projections of maximum potential storm surge height (MPS). We apply the MPS method to three major bays in Japan, Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya, using two mega-ensemble climate change projections: CMIP5 and d4PDF. The sensitivity of MPS change relative to sea surface temperature (SST) change for three major bays in Japan is about 0.12 m/ ∘ C during tropical cyclone season, which is about 1/10 of the change when considering SST rise only. Both the mean and variance of future MPS values will be much greater, especially in September and under higher representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios.
ISSN:0165-0009
1573-1480
DOI:10.1007/s10584-021-02980-x