An Appraisal of Indian Jaggery and Confectionery Exports in the Global Market: Markov Chain Model Approach

• Published in: Sugar tech : an international journal of sugar crops & related industries 2021-02, Vol.23 (1), p.118-129
• Main Authors: Revathy, R., Murali, P., Venkatasubramanian, V., Prathap, D. Puthira, Balamurali, S.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agriculture; Biomedical and Life Sciences; Candy; Confectionery; Exports; Global marketing; International trade; Life Sciences; Markov analysis; Markov chains; Markov processes; Mathematical models; Pricing; Research Article; Time series; Trade
• ISSN: 0972-1525; 0974-0740; 0972-1525
• DOI: 10.1007/s12355-020-00866-3

Jaggery and confectionery are the classical decentralized cane sweets prepared and used by many people all over the world. Both are playing an overriding role in the sugar economy by reaching the demands of export trade. Traditionally, India has been producing jaggery and confectionery for export revenues and is the foremost leading countries in exporting jaggery and confectionery since the ancient period. The current stage of jaggery exports is not consistent with high variance in prices due to changing market scenario, income and taste patterns. The fluctuation in the export market greatly affects the quantum of exports and requisites a time series analysis with modern techniques. Hence, secondary data were collected to assess the dynamic changes of jaggery and confectionery exports from India to various regions of the world by employing the mechanism of the Markov chain model. The model was executed with jaggery and confectionary export data for the year 2004–2018 and predicted the export as well as price level for the next few years. The Markov chain process has found that North African countries import a very high volume of jaggery and confectionary from India. The other countries were recorded with high or medium holding probabilities in export quantity and price for upcoming years. The overall region-wise results for 2019–2025 confirmed that the export quantity of jaggery and confectionery acquires high level, but the price turns into either very high or drops to medium level in the future period which needs to be taken care by the exporters to improve their trade share in the global market.