A summative evaluation of Jordan's Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS) 2013–2020: Case‐in‐point in socioeconomic policy

• Published in: Poverty & public policy 2020-12, Vol.12 (4), p.421-443
• Main Author: Abu Hummour, Anan M.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Antipoverty programs; before and after model; Developing countries; diseño casi experimental; Economic development; Education; Empirical analysis; Employment; ERP de Jordania 2012‐2020; Evaluación sumativa; Evaluation; Indicators; Jordan; Jordan's PRS 2012–2020; Jordania; LDCs; modelo de antes y después; Normal distribution; pobreza; Policy analysis; políticas públicas; Poverty; public policy; Quasi-experimental methods; quasi‐experimental design; Reduction; Research design; Socioeconomic factors; Socioeconomics; Statistical analysis; Statistical significance; summative evaluation; 公共政策; 准实验设计; 总结性评价（Summative evaluation; 约旦; 约旦2012‐2020年减贫战略; 贫困
• ISSN: 1944-2858; 2194-6027; 1944-2858
• DOI: 10.1002/pop4.291

The developing countries which reside in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region, and most notably in the nomadic areas, are challenged by the socioeconomic issue of poverty. Jordan is no exception to this rule. The objective of this study, therefore, is to provide actionable, timely, targeted, and results‐based feedback on a given poverty reduction program. Through reliance on sound analysis, the study offers insights and recommendations for poverty reduction in the Kingdom of Jordan while highlighting the impact of Jordan's Poverty Reduction Strategies (PRS) from 2012 to 2020 on selected socioeconomic indicators. The research design is a summative evaluation relying on quantitative analysis. Our quasi‐experimental approach has employed a before/after model, which utilizes interrupted time‐series and cross‐sectional components to evaluate the effect of Jordanian PRS on given economic indicators. We have applied various tests to evaluate our hypotheses, including the Mann–Whitney U test to measure the effectiveness of Jordan's PRS from 2013 to 2015, as well as the Shapiro–Wilk test to gauge normal distribution. Empirical findings on the impact of these poverty reduction programs have been mixed, but our analysis has substantiated the positive impact that PRS from 2012 to 2015 had on the target group. These programs effectively increased the number of families who benefited from the National Aid Fund; they augmented the number of projects aimed at gainful employment that were financed by the Development and Employment Fund; and they increased the number of Jordanian students enrolled in formal education by 2015—impacts which were statistically significant at level (p ≤ 0.05). The study further established, however, that the implementation of PRS from 2012 to 2020 was notably ineffectual in decreasing the number of seized beggars by 2015—an impact which was not statistically significant at level (p ≤ 0.05). This latter result, however, requires further study to account for the complex dynamics involved in cash assistance and education. Within the Jordanian context, no such prior study has been conducted which evaluates, through a holistic and results‐oriented approach, the impact of Jordan's PRS from 2012 to 2020 on poverty reduction and socioeconomic vulnerability. The work is original, not only in its unique contextual subject matter, but also in its sample, variables tested, and interpretation of results. 摘要 中东和北非地区（MENA）的发展中国家，尤其是游牧地区，正遭遇贫困带来的社会经济