A New Look at the Variance of Summertime Temperatures over Land

The increasing frequency of very high summertime temperatures has motivated growing interest in the processes determining the probability distribution of surface temperature over land. Here, we show that on monthly time scales, temperature anomalies can be modeled as linear responses to fluctuations...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of climate 2020-07, Vol.33 (13), p.5465-5477
Main Authors: Zeppetello, Lucas R. Vargas, Battisti, David S., Baker, Marcia B.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
Anthropogenic climate changes
Anthropogenic factors
Climate change
Global warming
Heat flux
Heat transfer
Hydrologic observations
Hydrologic processes
Hydrology
Latent heat
Latent heat flux
Long-term records
Northern Hemisphere
Precipitation
Probability distribution
Probability theory
Radiation
Short wave radiation
Spatial variability
Spatial variations
Summer
Surface temperature
Temperature
Temperature anomalies
Variance
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Summary:The increasing frequency of very high summertime temperatures has motivated growing interest in the processes determining the probability distribution of surface temperature over land. Here, we show that on monthly time scales, temperature anomalies can be modeled as linear responses to fluctuations in shortwave radiation and precipitation. Our model contains only three adjustable parameters, and, surprisingly, these can be taken as constant across the globe, notwithstanding large spatial variability in topography, vegetation, and hydrological processes. Using observations of shortwave radiation and precipitation from 2000 to 2017, the model accurately reproduces the observed pattern of temperature variance throughout the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. In addition, the variance in latent heat flux estimated by the model agrees well with the few long-term records that are available in the central United States. As an application of the model, we investigate the changes in the variance of monthly averaged surface temperature that might be expected due to anthropogenic climate change. We find that a climatic warming of 4°C causes a 10% increase in temperature variance in parts of North America.
ISSN:0894-8755
1520-0442
DOI:10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0887.1