Statistical Association between Space Weather and Meteorological Variables During Winter in the Baltic Sea Region

• Published in: Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 2021, Vol.61 (1), p.117-127
• Main Authors: Kiznys, Deivydas, Vencloviene, Jone
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air temperature; Airports; Atmospheric pressure; ATP; Daily weather; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Energy flux; Geomagnetic storms; Geomagnetism; Geophysics/Geodesy; Magnetic storms; Meteorological satellites; Regression analysis; Relative humidity; Solar energy; Solar protons; Solar storms; Solar wind; Solar wind velocity; Space weather; Statistical analysis; Storms; Weather effects; Wind speed
• ISSN: 0016-7932; 1555-645X; 0016-7940
• DOI: 10.1134/S0016793221010072

Some authors suggest that space weather events may affect daily weather variables, such as air temperature and atmospheric pressure. Associations between space weather events and daily weather variables have been analyzed in four Baltic airports near Kaunas, Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn during 2000–2016. We hypothesized that space weather events, 1–5 days before or after them, and intersection days (1–5 days after the event, which coincided with 1–5 days before the event) might be associated with changes in the daily weather variables. The effects of space weather were analyzed by using multivariate linear regression adjusting for the month, the linear trend, the QBO phase, and the NAO index. In all the studied cities, higher daily mean air temperature (T) was observed both during the period of 1–3 days before—1–4 days after high-speed solar wind (HSSW) (β > 1.8, p < 0.01) and during the period of 1–5 days before—the first 4 days of solar proton >10 MeV energy flux >10 pfu (β > 1.9, p < 0.01). HSSW events lasting more than 2 days were related to lower atmospheric pressure (ATP) and higher wind speed (WS), and the period of January–February. In addition, 7–23 days after the onset of solar proton event (SPE) with the maximum >1000 pfu was related to lower T, relative humidity (RH), and WS, and higher ATP in all cities ( p < 0.001 in all cases). In Northern airports, RH tended to be lower during geomagnetic storms (GS) or GS intersection days ( p < 0.01). Such space weather events as HSSW and SPE may be associated with short-term changes in weather variables.