Plausible energy demand patterns in a growing global economy with climate policy

Reducing the energy demand has become a key mechanism for limiting climate change, but there are practical limitations associated with large energy savings in a growing global economy and, importantly, its lower-income parts. Using new data on energy and GDP, we show that adopting the same near-term...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Nature climate change 2021-04, Vol.11 (4), p.313-318
Main Authors: Semieniuk, Gregor, Taylor, Lance, Rezai, Armon, Foley, Duncan K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
704/844/2175
704/844/2787
706/4066/4068
706/4066/4069
Climate Change
Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
Climate models
Climate policy
Constraining
Decarbonization
Developing countries
Development economics
Development policy
Earth and Environmental Science
Economic development
Economic models
Economics
Energy
Energy conservation
Energy demand
Energy development
Energy policy
Environment
Environmental Law/Policy/Ecojustice
Environmental policy
Global economy
Global warming
Income
Industrial development
Industrialization
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
LDCs
Low income areas
Modelling
Reduction
Regional development
Regions
Stability
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Summary:Reducing the energy demand has become a key mechanism for limiting climate change, but there are practical limitations associated with large energy savings in a growing global economy and, importantly, its lower-income parts. Using new data on energy and GDP, we show that adopting the same near-term low-energy growth trajectory in all regions in IPCC scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5 °C presents an unresolved policy challenge. We discuss this challenge of combining energy demand reductions with robust income growth for the 6.4 billion people in middle- and low-income countries in light of the reliance of economic development on industrialization. Our results highlight the importance of addressing limits to energy demand reduction in integrated assessment modelling when regional economic development is powered by industrialization and of instead exploring faster energy supply decarbonization. Insights from development economics and other disciplines could help generate plausible assumptions given the financial, investment and stability issues involved. Climate policy calls for energy demand reduction on top of decarbonizing energy generation. Analysis of historical energy–income data shows that achieving these climate targets alongside economic development poses unresolved policy and modelling challenges, especially for developing countries.
ISSN:1758-678X
1758-6798
DOI:10.1038/s41558-020-00975-7