An Internal Atmospheric Process Determining Summertime Arctic Sea Ice Melting in the Next Three Decades: Lessons Learned from Five Large Ensembles and Multiple CMIP5 Climate Simulations

• Published in: Journal of climate 2020-09, Vol.33 (17), p.7431-7454
• Main Authors: Topál, Dániel, Ding, Qinghua, Mitchell, Jonathan, Baxter, Ian, Herein, Mátyás, Haszpra, Tímea, Luo, Rui, Li, Qingquan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ablation; Arctic climates; Arctic sea ice; Atmospheric models; Atmospheric variability; Barotropic mode; Climate; Climate models; Climate system; Dynamic height; Environment models; Forecasting; Geopotential; Geopotential height; Global climate; Ice melting; Melting; Oceans; Sea ice; Sea surface; Sea surface temperature; Simulation; Summer; Surface temperature; Tropical climate; Variability
• ISSN: 0894-8755; 1520-0442
• DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0803.1

Arctic sea ice melting processes in summer due to internal atmospheric variability have recently received considerable attention. A regional barotropic atmospheric process over Greenland and the Arctic Ocean in summer (June–August), featuring either a year-to-year change or a low-frequency trend toward geopotential height rise, has been identified as an essential contributor to September sea ice loss, in both observations and the CESM1 Large Ensemble (CESM-LE) of simulations. This local melting is further found to be sensitive to remote sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean. Here, we utilize five available large “initial condition” Earth system model ensembles and 31 CMIP5 models’ preindustrial control simulations to show that the same atmospheric process, resembling the observed one and the one found in theCESM-LE, also dominates internal sea ice variability in summer on interannual to interdecadal time scales in preindustrial, historical, and future scenarios, regardless of themodeling environment.However, allmodels exhibit limitations in replicating the magnitude of the observed local atmosphere–sea ice coupling and its sensitivity to remote tropical SST variability in the past four decades. These biases call for caution in the interpretation of existing models’ simulations and fresh thinking about models’ credibility in simulating interactions of sea ice variability with the Arctic and global climate systems. Further efforts toward identifying the causes of these model limitations may provide implications for alleviating the biases and improving interannual- and decadal-time-scale sea ice prediction and future sea ice projection.