Sources of Subseasonal Predictability over CONUS during Boreal Summer

The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2...

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Published in:Journal of climate 2021-05, Vol.34 (9), p.3273-3294
Main Authors: Krishnamurthy, V., Meixner, Jessica, Stefanova, Lydia, Wang, Jiande, Worthen, Denise, Moorthi, Shrinivas, Li, Bin, Sluka, Travis, Stan, Cristiana
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Climate
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
Forecast errors
Ice
Identification
Intraseasonal oscillation
Modes
Oceanic analysis
Precipitation
Prototypes
Southern Oscillation
Summer
Temperature
Time
Time series
Variability
Weekly
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container_end_page 3294
container_issue 9
container_start_page 3273
container_title Journal of climate
container_volume 34
creator Krishnamurthy, V.
Meixner, Jessica
Stefanova, Lydia
Wang, Jiande
Worthen, Denise
Moorthi, Shrinivas
Li, Bin
Sluka, Travis
Stan, Cristiana
description The predictability of the Unified Forecast System (UFS) Coupled Model Prototype 2 developed by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction is assessed for the boreal summer over the continental United States (CONUS). The retrospective forecasts of low-level horizontal wind, precipitation and 2-m temperature for 2011–17 are examined to determine the predictability at subseasonal time scale. Using a data-adaptive method, the leading modes of variability are obtained and identified to be related to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), and warming trend. In a new approach, the sources of enhanced predictability are identified by examining the forecast errors and correlations in the weekly averages of the leading modes of variability. During the boreal summer, the ISO followed by the trend in UFS are found to provide better predictability in weeks 1–4 compared to the ENSO mode and the total anomaly. The western CONUS seems to have better predictability on weekly time scale in all three modes.
doi_str_mv 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0586.1
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subjects Climate
El Nino
El Nino phenomena
El Nino-Southern Oscillation event
Forecast errors
Ice
Identification
Intraseasonal oscillation
Modes
Oceanic analysis
Precipitation
Prototypes
Southern Oscillation
Summer
Temperature
Time
Time series
Variability
Weekly
title Sources of Subseasonal Predictability over CONUS during Boreal Summer
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