Integration of earth observation and census data for mapping a multi-temporal flood vulnerability index: a case study on Northeast Italy

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2021-04, Vol.106 (3), p.2163-2184
• Main Authors: Cian, Fabio, Giupponi, Carlo, Marconcini, Mattia
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agriculture; Capacity; Case studies; Census; Censuses; Civil Engineering; Climate adaptation; Climate change; Climate change adaptation; Climate science; Coping; Data; Data acquisition; Dimensions; Disaster management; Disaster risk; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Economic analysis; Economic development; Economic impact; Economics; Emergency preparedness; Employment; Environmental Management; Environmental risk; Extreme weather; Flood damage; Flood mapping; Floods; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hydrogeology; Indexes; Integration; Land use; Natural Hazards; Original Paper; Properties; Property; Risk management; Risk reduction; Runoff; Socioeconomic aspects; Soil water; Spatial data; Surface properties; Urban areas; Urban development; Urban growth; Urban sprawl; Value; Vulnerability; Weather
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04535-w

Climate sciences foresee a future where extreme weather events could happen with increased frequency and strength, which would in turn increase risks of floods (i.e. the main source of losses in the world). The Mediterranean basin is considered a hot spot in terms of climate vulnerability and risk. The expected impacts of those events are exacerbated by land-use change and, in particular, by urban growth which increases soil sealing and, hence, water runoff. The ultimate consequence would be an increase of fatalities and injuries, but also of economic losses in urban areas, commercial and productive sites, infrastructures and agriculture. Flood damages have different magnitudes depending on the economic value of the exposed assets and on level of physical contact with the hazard. This work aims at proposing a methodology, easily customizable by experts’ elicitation, able to quantify and map the social component of vulnerability through the integration of earth observation (EO) and census data with the aim of allowing for a multi-temporal spatial assessment. Firstly, data on employment, properties and education are used for assessing the adaptive capacity of the society to increase resilience to adverse events, whereas, secondly, coping capacity, i.e. the capacities to deal with events during their manifestation, is mapped by aggregating demographic and socio-economic data, urban growth analysis and memory on past events. Thirdly, the physical dimension of exposed assets (susceptibility) is assessed by combining building properties acquired by census data and land-surface characteristics derived from EO data. Finally, the three components (i.e. adaptive and coping capacity and susceptibility) are aggregated for calculating the dynamic flood vulnerability index (FVI). The approach has been applied to Northeast Italy, a region frequently hit by floods, which has experienced a significant urban and economic development in the past decades, thus making the dynamic study of FVI particularly relevant. The analysis has been carried out from 1991 to 2016 at a 5-year steps, showing how the integration of different data sources allows to produce a dynamic assessment of vulnerability, which can be very relevant for planning in support of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.