The change in the probability of aviation accidents “Collision of an aircraft with a bird” in accordance with of a change in the temperature cycle

This paper considers the possibility of predicting the most frequent aviation event “Collision of an aircraft with a bird”, depending on the seasonality near the airfield. A model for determining the probability of this event is proposed, where the “time of year” is identified by the predicted air t...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of physics. Conference series 2021-02, Vol.1745 (1), p.12069
Main Authors: Burmistrova, V G, Butov, A A, Volkov, M A, Yavtushenko, M S, Kostishko, B M, Moskvicheva, M G, Pchelkina, Yu Z
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Air temperature
Aircraft
Aircraft accidents
Approximation
Aviation
Mathematical analysis
Physics
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Summary:This paper considers the possibility of predicting the most frequent aviation event “Collision of an aircraft with a bird”, depending on the seasonality near the airfield. A model for determining the probability of this event is proposed, where the “time of year” is identified by the predicted air temperature near the airfield in question and the problem of determining the accumulated probability is solved. We consider the first approximation in which events are assumed to be independent (these are complex ecological and ornithological conditions and flaws of airfield’s ornithological support). Due to the first approximation of independence, the paper provides a possible way to determine the probability of the event “Collision of an aircraft with a bird”. This method (in the form of a formula) determines the probability of intersection of events caused by hazard factors. The result of the simulation is the probability of long-term forecasting of the probability of an aviation incident due to an aircraft collision.
ISSN:1742-6588
1742-6596
DOI:10.1088/1742-6596/1745/1/012069