Environmental variability and fishing effects on the Pacific sardine fisheries in the Gulf of California

Small pelagic fish support some of the largest fisheries globally, yet there is an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the impacts of environmental processes and fishing activities on target species. We use a nonparametric, nonlinear approach to quantify these effects on the Pacific sardine (Sardi...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Canadian journal of fisheries and aquatic sciences 2021-05, Vol.78 (5), p.623-630
Main Authors: Giron-Nava, Alfredo, Ezcurra, Exequiel, Brias, Antoine, Velarde, Enriqueta, Deyle, Ethan, Cisneros-Montemayor, Andrés M, Munch, Stephan B, Sugihara, George, Aburto-Oropeza, Octavio
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Catch per unit effort
Catch statistics
Clupeoid fisheries
Dynamic programming
El Nino phenomena
Environmental aspects
Environmental conditions
Environmental effects
Environmental factors
Environmental impact
Fish populations
Fisheries
Fishery data
Fishing
Fishing effort
Fishing pressure
Marine
Mathematical models
Maximum sustainable yield
Methods
Modelling
Population dynamics
Pressure effects
Regression analysis
Sardines
Sardinops sagax
Sustainability
Sustainable fisheries
Sustainable yield
Time series analysis
Yields
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Summary:Small pelagic fish support some of the largest fisheries globally, yet there is an ongoing debate about the magnitude of the impacts of environmental processes and fishing activities on target species. We use a nonparametric, nonlinear approach to quantify these effects on the Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) in the Gulf of California. We show that the effect of fishing pressure and environmental variability are comparable. Furthermore, when predicting total catches, the best models account for both drivers. By using empirical dynamic programming with average environmental conditions, we calculated optimal policies to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries. The first policy, the equilibrium maximum sustainable yield, suggests that the fishery could sustain an annual catch of ∼2.16 × 10 5 tonnes. The second policy with dynamic optimal effort, reveals that the effort from 2 to 4 years ago impacts the current maximum sustainable effort. Consecutive years of high effort require a reduction to let the stock recover. Our work highlights a new framework that embraces the complex processes that drive fisheries population dynamics yet produces simple and robust advice to ensure long-term sustainable fisheries.
ISSN:0706-652X
1205-7533
DOI:10.1139/cjfas-2020-0010