The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on consumer and business confidence indicators

The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research we...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Journal of risk and financial management 2021-04, Vol.14 (4), p.1-23
Main Authors: Teresiene, Deimante, Keliuotyte-Staniuleniene, Greta, Liao, Yiyi, Kanapickiene, Rasa, Pu, Ruihui, Hu, Siyan, Yue, Xiao-Guang
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
consumer confidence
Consumer Confidence Index
Consumers
Consumption
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
COVID-19 pandemic
Economic growth
Economic indicators
economic sentiment
Eurozone
Forecasting
Industrial production
Labor market
leading indicators
Manufacturing
Pandemics
Securities markets
Trends
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Summary:The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our research we aim to identify consumer and business confidence indicators' reaction to the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Eurozone, the United States, and China. For this purpose, we used the method of correlation-regression analysis. We chose the consumer-confidence index, manufacturing purchasing manager's index, and services purchasing manager's index as dependent variables; and the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19, and the mortality rate of COVID-19 infections as independent variables. The results showed a relatively rapid and robust effect of COVID-19 in the short period, but longer-term results depended on the region and were not so unambiguous: in the case of the Eurozone, the spread of COVID-19 pandemic did not affect the consumer-confidence index (CCI) or, in the cases of the United States and China, affected this index negatively; the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the services sector was significantly negatively affected by the mortality risk of COVID-19 infection; and the impact on the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in the manufacturing industry appeared to be mixed.
ISSN:1911-8074
1911-8066
1911-8074
DOI:10.3390/jrfm14040159