Scenario Analysis of Carbon Emissions in the Energy Base, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, China

The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990–2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region,...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2019-08, Vol.11 (15), p.4220
Main Authors: Qin, Jiancheng, Tao, Hui, Zhan, Minjin, Munir, Qamar, Brindha, Karthikeyan, Mu, Guijin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Alternative energy sources
Carbon
Climate change
Coal
Coasts
Economic development
Economic growth
Economic sectors
Electricity distribution
Emissions
Energy
Energy consumption
Fossil fuels
Gases
GDP
Global warming
Gross Domestic Product
Industrial development
Modernization
Paris Agreement
Per capita
Population
Population growth
Provinces
Regression analysis
Renewable resources
Socioeconomics
Sustainability
Sustainable development
Urbanization
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Summary:The realization of carbon emissions peak is important in the energy base area of China for the sustainable development of the socio-economic sector. The STIRPAT model was employed to analyze the elasticity of influencing factors of carbon emissions during 1990–2010 in the Xinjiang autonomous region, China. The results display that population growth is the key driving factor for carbon emissions, while energy intensity is the key restraining factor. With 1% change in population, gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, energy intensity, energy structure, urbanization level, and industrial structure, the change in carbon emissions was 0.80%, 0.48%, 0.20%, 0.07%, 0.58%, and 0.47%, respectively. Based on the results from regression analysis, scenario analysis was employed in this study, and it was found that Xinjiang would be difficult to realize carbon emissions peak early around 2030. Under the condition of the medium-high change rates in energy intensity, energy structure, industrial structure, and with the low-medium change rates in population, GDP per capita, and urbanization level, Xinjiang will achieve carbon emissions peak at of 626.21, 636.24, 459.53, and 662.25 million tons in the year of 2030, 2030, 2040, and 2040, respectively. At last, under the background of Chinese carbon emissions peak around 2030, this paper puts forward relevant policies and suggestions to the sustainable socio-economic development for the energy base area, Xinjiang autonomous region.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su11154220