Risk analysis model of sweet corn production using z-score and value at risk methods

Sweet corn is one of the food commodities produced by farmers in Indonesia. In sweet corn cultivation, farmers face the risk of production originating form fertilizers, pets and weather changes. Production risks include the decrease of quality and quantity of production and farmers experiencing loss...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science 2021-04, Vol.748 (1), p.12014
Main Authors: Wahyuni, E, Kasmiati, Sutrisno, A, Rahajeng, G Y
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Agricultural production
Chemical pest control
Climate change
Corn
Cultivation
Dosage
Farmers
Farming
Fertilizers
Grain cultivation
Grasshoppers
Impact analysis
Insects
Mitigation
Pest attack
Pesticides
Pests
Pets
Probability
Risk analysis
Sanitation
Sweetcorn
Vegetables
Weather
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Summary:Sweet corn is one of the food commodities produced by farmers in Indonesia. In sweet corn cultivation, farmers face the risk of production originating form fertilizers, pets and weather changes. Production risks include the decrease of quality and quantity of production and farmers experiencing losses. The purposes of this study were to identify sources of farming production risk, to analyze the probabilities and impacts of risk sources, to formulate the overcoming risk strategies risk of sweet corn farming production. A total of 50 corm farmers were involved. The collected data were analyzed by using descriptive analysis, probability and impact analysis, the Z-score and Value at Risk (VaR). The biggest source of risk was pest attack with a probability of 9.63% and an impact of Rp 562.102,64/hectare followed by fertilizer with a probability 6.55% and an impact of Rp 536.600,03/hectare and weather/climate change with a probability of 2% and an impact of Rp 337.150,10/hectare. The preventive strategies used to handle pest risk sources were land sanitation and mitigation strategies, namely the provision of pesticides and insect for grasshoppers. Mitigation strategy was used to handle fertilizer risk that improving farmers’ skills in fertilizing and giving the right type of fertilizer and dosage. As for climate/climate change, the preventive strategies used wark making drainage, making high beds, watering and growing or accumulating roots.
ISSN:1755-1307
1755-1315
DOI:10.1088/1755-1315/748/1/012014