Did Real Estate Professionals Anticipate the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis? Evidence from Insider Trading in the REITs

This research examines whether real estate professionals detected the property bubble and foresaw the consequent financial crisis of 2007-2008. By analysing the insider trading activities within REITs from 1996 to 2010, we find that REIT insiders reduced their holdings significantly during the real...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The journal of real estate finance and economics 2021-07, Vol.63 (1), p.122-142
Main Authors: Shen, Jianfu, Hui, Eddie C.M., Fan, Kwokyuen
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Bias
Economic crisis
Economics
Economics and Finance
Financial Services
Hypotheses
Insider trading
Optimism
Real estate
Regional/Spatial Science
REITs
Wealth
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Summary:This research examines whether real estate professionals detected the property bubble and foresaw the consequent financial crisis of 2007-2008. By analysing the insider trading activities within REITs from 1996 to 2010, we find that REIT insiders reduced their holdings significantly during the real estate boom period as early as 2004, before the financial crisis. Difference-in-difference analysis reveals that REIT insiders cashed out their positions more aggressively than insiders in real estate and construction firms. The findings support the informed trader hypothesis that managers and employees in REITs anticipated the burst of the real estate bubble and the imminent financial crisis, and shifted their wealth away from the real estate market to avoid potential losses. We find no evidence to support the biased belief hypothesis (Cheng et al., 2014 ) that REIT insiders were over-optimistic during the real estate boom period or that their inside trading behaviour was affected by local market performance.
ISSN:0895-5638
1573-045X
DOI:10.1007/s11146-020-09763-8