Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo- Brazil

An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in São Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for S...

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Published in:Nature Portfolio 2020
Main Authors: Osmar Pinto Neto, José Clark Reis, Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi, Zambrano, Gustavo José, Joabe Marcos de Souza, Wellington Amorim Pedroso, Rodrigo Cunha de Mello Pedreiro, Bruno de Matos Brizzi, Ellysson Oliveira Abinade, Kennedy, Deanna M, Renato Amaro Zângaro
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Language:English
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Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Social distancing
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container_title Nature Portfolio
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creator Osmar Pinto Neto
José Clark Reis
Ana Carolina Brisola Brizzi
Zambrano, Gustavo José
Joabe Marcos de Souza
Wellington Amorim Pedroso
Rodrigo Cunha de Mello Pedreiro
Bruno de Matos Brizzi
Ellysson Oliveira Abinade
Kennedy, Deanna M
Renato Amaro Zângaro
description An epidemiological compartmental model was used to simulate social distancing strategies to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and prevent a second wave in São Paulo, Brazil. Optimization using genetic algorithm was used to determine the optimal solutions. Our results suggest the best-case strategy for São Paulo is to maintain or increase the current magnitude of social distancing for at least 60 more days and increase the current levels of personal protection behaviors by a minimum of 10% (e.g., wearing facemasks, proper hand hygiene and avoid agglomeration). Followed by a long-term oscillatory level of social distancing with a stepping-down approach every 80 days over a period of two years with continued protective behavior.
doi_str_mv 10.21203/rs.3.rs-32962/v1
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identifier DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-32962/v1
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subjects Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Social distancing
title Mathematical model of COVID-19 intervention scenarios for São Paulo- Brazil
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