A Quantitative Analysis of Socio-Economic Determinants Influencing Crop Drought Vulnerability in Sub-Saharan Africa

Drought events have significant impacts on agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as agricultural production in most of the countries relies on precipitation. Socio-economic factors have a tremendous influence on whether a farmer or a nation can adapt to these climate stressors. This s...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2019-11, Vol.11 (21), p.6135
Main Authors: Kamali, Bahareh, Abbaspour, Karim C., Wehrli, Bernhard, Yang, Hong
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Adaptation
Agricultural production
Agriculture
Climate
Climate change
Corn
Drought
Economic development
Economic factors
Environmental policy
Fertilizers
Food
Food production
Natural resources
Precipitation
Quantitative analysis
Resilience
Social factors
Socioeconomic factors
Socioeconomics
Statistical analysis
Sustainability
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Summary:Drought events have significant impacts on agricultural production in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), as agricultural production in most of the countries relies on precipitation. Socio-economic factors have a tremendous influence on whether a farmer or a nation can adapt to these climate stressors. This study aims to examine the extent to which these factors affect maize vulnerability to drought in SSA. To differentiate sensitive regions from resilient ones, we defined a crop drought vulnerability index (CDVI) calculated by comparing recorded yield with expected yield simulated by the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) model during 1990–2012. We then assessed the relationship between CDVI and potential socio-economic variables using regression techniques and identified the influencing variables. The results show that the level of fertilizer use is a highly influential factor on vulnerability. Additionally, countries with higher food production index and better infrastructure are more resilient to drought. The role of the government effectiveness variable was less apparent across the SSA countries due to being generally stationary. Improving adaptations to drought through investing in infrastructure, improving fertilizer distribution, and fostering economic development would contribute to drought resilience.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su11216135