A Flexible Agent-Based Model to Study COVID-19 Outbreak -- A Generic Approach

• Published in: arXiv.org 2021-06
• Main Authors: Burman, Anik, Chatterjee, Sayak, Ghosh, Pramit, Mukhokadhyay, Indranil
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agent-based models; Asymptomatic; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Disease transmission; Infections; Mathematical models; Outbreaks; Parameter estimation; Parameter identification; Population; Population density; Sensitivity; Viral diseases
• ISSN: 2331-8422

Understanding dynamics of an outbreak like that of COVID-19 is important in designing effective control measures. This study aims to develop an agent based model that compares changes in infection progression by manipulating different parameters in a synthetic population. Model input includes population characteristics like age, sex, working status etc. of each individual and other factors influencing disease dynamics. Depending on number of epicentres of infection, location of primary cases, sensitivity, proportion of asymptomatic and frequency or duration of lockdown, our simulator tracks every individual and hence infection progression through community over time. In a closed community of 10000 people, it is seen that without any lockdown, number of cases peak around 6th week and wanes off around 15th week. If primary case is located inside dense population cluster like slums, cases peak early and wane off slowly. With introduction of lockdown, cases peak at slower rate. If sensitivity of identifying infection decreases, cases and deaths increase. Number of cases declines with increase in proportion of asymptomatic cases. The model is robust and provides reproducible estimates with realistic parameter values. It also guides in identifying measures to control outbreak in a community. It is flexible in accommodating different parameters like infectivity period, yield of testing, socio-economic strata, daily travel, awareness level, population density, social distancing, lockdown etc. and can be tailored to study other infections with similar transmission pattern.