Assessment of the effect of long-range transport on air pollution trends for different Russian regions

• Published in: IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science 2020-11, Vol.606 (1), p.12034
• Main Authors: Makosko, A A, Matesheva, A V
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Air pollution; Climate change; Economic development; Impurities; Mathematical models; Numerical models; Pollutants; Pollution dispersion; Pollution effects; Spherical coordinates; Territory; Transboundary pollution; Trends; Two dimensional models
• ISSN: 1755-1307; 1755-1315
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/606/1/012034

The features of the dynamics of long-range atmospheric pollution of the territories of the Russian Federation under current conditions, in the immediate and distant prospects (from 1980 to 2050) taking into account two scenarios of the changing climate in the 21st century were studied. To assess contribution and trends of long-range atmospheric pollution in Russian regions, a two-dimensional numerical model is constructed, which implements the solution of the coupled problem of transport and diffusion of impurities in spherical coordinates, as well as an improved method for identifying sources of transboundary and local air pollution. The results indicate general trends in the directions of the flow of pollutants to the Russian regions in 1980-2050 from zonal (western) to meridional (southern). Such dynamics is markedly expressed in the regions of Siberia and the Far East and slightly in the European territory of Russia and the Urals. In the climatic scenario RCP8.5, despite the general tendency towards the southern transport of impurities, a certain dispersion of directions from where the regions are polluted becomes noticeable. It indicates an increase in atmospheric pollution from the west in certain regions, mainly in the central part and in the south of the ETR. The greatest danger to long-range atmospheric pollution of the regions of Siberia and the Far East in the coming decades will be sources located south of these territories; of the regions of the ETR and the Urals - sources located to the west and south. These results are important for the development of proposals for ensuring the environmental safety of Russian regions and for planning economic development of the country's territories that affect the pollution of the environment of ecologically significant zones.