Economic dynamics of epidemiological bifurcations

In this paper, we investigate the nature of rational expectations equilibria for economic epidemiological models, with a particular focus on the behavioral origins and dynamics of epidemiological bifurcations. Unlike mathematical epidemiological models, economic epidemiological models can produce re...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Studies in nonlinear dynamics and econometrics 2021-06, Vol.25 (3), p.1-18
Main Authors: Aadland, David, Finnoff, David, Huang, Kevin X.D.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
bifurcation
Bifurcations
economic epidemiology
Economic models
Endogenous
endogenous disease risk
Epidemiology
Equilibrium
indeterminacy
Medical technology
Policy making
Rational expectations
self-fulfilling prophecies
Uncertainty
Welfare
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Summary:In this paper, we investigate the nature of rational expectations equilibria for economic epidemiological models, with a particular focus on the behavioral origins and dynamics of epidemiological bifurcations. Unlike mathematical epidemiological models, economic epidemiological models can produce regions of indeterminacy or instability around the endemic steady states due to endogenous human responses to epidemiological circumstance variation, medical technology change, or health policy reform. We consider SI, SIS, SIR and SIRS versions of economic compartmental models and show how well-intentioned public policy may contribute to disease instability, uncertainty, and welfare losses.
ISSN:1081-1826
1558-3708
DOI:10.1515/snde-2019-0111