Combining Business Model Innovation and Model-Based Analysis to Tackle the Deep Uncertainty of Societal Transitions—A Case Study on Industrial Electrification and Power Grid Management

Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2021-07, Vol.13 (13), p.7264
Main Authors: Zapata Riveros, Juliana, Speich, Matthias, West, Mirjam, Ulli-Beer, Silvia
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Business models
Carbon
Case studies
Clean technology
Climate change
Diffusion
Electric power grids
Electricity distribution
Electrification
Energy industry
Environmental policy
Experiments
Flexibility
Innovations
Sensitivity analysis
Simulation
Sustainability
System dynamics
Uncertainty
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Summary:Creating new business models is crucial for the implementation of clean technologies for industrial decarbonization. With incomplete knowledge of market processes and uncertain conditions, assessing the prospects of a technology-based business model is challenging. This study combines business model innovation, system dynamics, and exploratory model analysis to identify new business opportunities in a context of sociotechnical transition and assess their prospects through simulation experiments. This combination of methods is applied to the case of a potential business model for Distribution System Operators aiming at ensuring the stability of the electrical grid by centralizing the management of flexible loads in industrial companies. A system dynamics model was set up to simulate the diffusion of flexible electrification technologies. Through scenario definition and sensitivity analysis, the influence of internal and external factors on diffusion was assessed. Results highlight the central role of energy costs and customer perception. The chosen combination of methods allowed the formulation of concrete recommendations for coordinated action, explicitly accounting for the various sources of uncertainty. We suggest testing this approach in further business model innovation contexts.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su13137264