Large potentials for energy saving and greenhouse gas emission reductions from large-scale deployment of zero emission building technologies in a national building stock

• Published in: Energy policy 2021-05, Vol.152, p.112114, Article 112114
• Main Authors: Sandberg, Nina Holck, Næss, Jan Sandstad, Brattebø, Helge, Andresen, Inger, Gustavsen, Arild
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Ambition; Buildings; Climate change; Climate change mitigation; Deployment; Dynamic building stock modelling; Emission standards; Emissions; Emissions control; Energy; Energy conservation; Energy efficiency; Energy policy; Energy saving potential; Environmental policy; GHG emission saving potential; Greenhouse gases; Mitigation; New technology; Regulation; Savings; Scenario analysis; Stock exchanges; ZEB transition; Zero emission building technologies
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2020.112114

High energy and material demand in the building sector causes large greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This sector needs large-scale technological improvements in the transition to a future low-emission society. Extensive research is carried out on highly energy-efficient and zero emission buildings (ZEB), but the new technologies slowly penetrate the market. Until now, no bottom-up studies have applied a dynamic building stock energy model at the national level to quantify effects of a large-scale ZEB introduction. Using the RE-BUILDS 2.0 model, we explore and extensively discuss the aggregated potential for energy and GHG emission savings in the Norwegian building stock towards 2050. A Baseline scenario is compared with two ZEB scenarios assuming introduction of the ZEB definition and ZEB technologies applied in the future new built and renovated buildings, with an increased ambition level over time. The results reveal a large potential for energy and GHG emission savings of ZEB deployment towards 2050. Hence, stricter future regulations and practice will have important aggregated effects. Due to the long lifetime of buildings and potential lock-in effects, it is urgent that ZEB policies are implemented if the climate change mitigation potential of the Norwegian building stock is going to be reached. •Modelling potential aggregated effects of introduction of zero emission buildings.•Energy and GHG emission saving potential in the Norwegian building sector 2020–2050.•Scenario analysis reveals a large saving potential.•Stricter regulations work and are needed to realize this potential.•Urgency of rapid ZEB policy implementation to avoid lock-in effect.