Energy Efficiency Vision 2050: How will new societal trends influence future energy demand in the European countries?

• Published in: Energy policy 2021-05, Vol.152, p.112216, Article 112216
• Main Authors: Brugger, Heike, Eichhammer, Wolfgang, Mikova, Nadezhda, Dönitz, Ewa
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Digitization; Efficiency; Energy demand; Energy efficiency; Energy policy; Energy scenarios; European targets 2050; Impact analysis; Literature reviews; New societal trends; Policy making; Sharing economy; Trends
• ISSN: 0301-4215; 1873-6777
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112216

New societal trends are unfolding, such as digitalization, sharing economy and consumer awareness. They will highly influence future energy demand and, depending on their realization, enhance or counteract projected energy efficiency gains. Therefore, these trends have to be accompanied by policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand (including Energy Efficiency First). This work analyzes quantitatively for all sectors how New Societal Trends interact with energy efficiency (policies). An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, “New Trends Efficient”, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU “Baseline” scenario in 2050. While in the “Worst Case” scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%. This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein. •Identifying 12 new societal trends that can have a crucial impact on energy demand.•Amongst others trends include clusters on “Digitalization” and “Quality of Life".•In the best case, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% in 2050.•In the worst case, they could increase final energy demand by 40% in 2050.•Policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand are needed for all trends.