A Binomial Model Approach: Comparing the R0 Values of SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR Data from Laboratories across Northern Cyprus

• Published in: Computer modeling in engineering & sciences 2021-01, Vol.128 (2), p.717-729
• Main Authors: Sultanoglu, Nazife, Gokbulut, Nezihal, Sanlidag, Tamer, Hincal, Evren, Kaymakamzade, Bilgen, Sayan, Murat
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Basic Reproduction Number; Comparative studies; Comparison; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Laboratories; Mathematical models; Median (statistics); Passengers; Polymerase chain reaction; Respiratory diseases; Screening; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; Signs and symptoms; Statistical Analysis; Tests Performed; Viral diseases
• ISSN: 1526-1492; 1526-1506; 1526-1506
• DOI: 10.32604/cmes.2021.016297

Northern Cyprus has implemented relatively strict measures in the battle against the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The measures were introduced at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, in order to prevent the spread of the disease. One of these measures was the use of two separate realtime reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) tests for SARS-CoV-2 referred to as the double screening procedure, which was adopted following the re-opening of the sea, air and land borders for passengers after the first lockdown. The rRT-PCR double screening procedure involved reporting a negative rRT-PCR test which was carried in 72 to 120 h before departure whilst presenting no known symptoms of the COVID-19 and performing a second rRT-PCR test at the point of arrival. This study compares the results of SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR tests performed on incoming flight passengers from the 1st July to 9th of September 2020 to Northern Cyprus. The rRT-PCR test results collected by the Near East University (NEU) DESAM COVID-19 laboratory were compared with the rRT-PCR test results collected by the Ministry of Health and/or private COVID-19 laboratories in Northern Cyprus. This comparative study was conducted using binomial distribution. In addition, by applying the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) model to Northern Cyprus, overall basic reproduction number (R0) value of the COVID-19 was analysed for the same time period to act as a threshold for this comparison. In both the statistical and SEIR mathematical model, R0 was calculated. It was assumed that, the more similar the R0 results of NEU DESAM COVID-19 laboratory and other laboratories were with the overall R0 value of Northern Cyprus, the more reliable the results would be. We calculated that the median R0 values of the NEU DESAM COVID-19 laboratory and other laboratories performing the SARS-CoV-2 rRT-PCR on air passengers during the studied period to be 0.96 and 1.29, respectively, compared to Northern Cyprus median R0 value which was 0.99. The rRT-PCR screening results from the NEU DESAM COVID-19 laboratory were closely aligned with the screening results of Northern Cyprus whereas the screening results reported by other laboratories were not in a fit with the regional pattern. This study also aimed to point out the importance of the rRT-PCR screening procedure since asymptomatic positive SARS-CoV-2 cases entery to Northern Cyprus was inhibited and this preven