Surface temperature variability in climate models with large and small internal climate variability

• Published in: Quarterly journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2021-07, Vol.147 (738), p.3004-3016
• Main Authors: Yeh, Sang‐Wook, Hyun, Seung‐Hwon, Park, In‐Hong, Zheng, Xiao‐Tong
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: 1. tools and methods: dynamic/processes; 2. scale: global; 6. application/context: climate; Climate; Climate change; climate model; Climate models; Climate variability; Climatic extremes; El Nino; El Nino phenomena; El Nino-Southern Oscillation event; Future climates; Intercomparison; internal climate variability; Physics; Southern Oscillation; Surface temperature; surface temperature variability; Temperature; Temperature variability; Variability
• ISSN: 0035-9009; 1477-870X
• DOI: 10.1002/qj.4112

By analyzing large ensemble simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM_LE), the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble (MPI_GE), and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models, we quantified internal climate variability (ICV) of surface temperature in each model based on the spread of simulated global mean surface temperature from the ensemble mean. Then, we examined the characteristics of simulated surface temperature variability in climate models with large and small ICV in the present climate and in a future climate. Both the CESM_LE and MPI_GE members with large ICVs tended to simulate larger surface temperature variability at low latitudes, including El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability, and larger cooling and warming trends of the global mean surface temperatures than those with small ICVs in the present climate. Similar characteristics were observed in CMIP5 climate models with large and small ICVs in the present climate. This implies that surface temperature variability including extreme climate events should be cautiously examined in climate models with large and small ICVs. On the other hand, the characteristics of surface temperature variability simulated in the CMIP5 climate models with large or small ICVs were similar from the present climate to future climate with magnitude of ICVs. This was in contrast to that simulated in the CESM_LE and MPI_GE, in which the magnitude of ICV changes between the present climate and the future climate. We inferred that these differences between CMIP5 climate models and large ensemble simulations could primarily be attributed to intermodel differences in the CMIP5 climate models, including model physics and parameterizations. Internal climate variability (ICV) is the natural variability of the climate system in the absence of external forcing, and it causes large uncertainty when simulating the present climate as well as the future climate. In this study, we examined the characteristics of simulated surface temperature variability with large and small ICV in the present climate and in a future climate by analyzing large ensemble simulations using the CESM, MPI‐GE, and CMIP5 climate models. We found that the climate models with large ICVs tended to simulate larger surface temperature variability at low latitudes, and larger cooling and warming trends of the global mean surface temperatures than those with small ICVs in the present climate.