Analysis of the Criteria for Assessing the Forecast Quality of Industrial Safety Indicators of Enterprises

The paper describes changes of paradigm management in enterprise's industrial safety based on a risk-based approach. This method includes identifying, analyzing, forecasting the risks of industrial accidents as well as assessing the possible extent of their consequences. All calculations should...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:International journal of performability engineering 2021-06, Vol.17 (6), p.519
Main Authors: Leila M., Bogdanova, Sergey Ya, Nagibin, Alexander S., Chemakin
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accident prevention
Complex systems
Complexity
Criteria
Empirical analysis
Indicators
Industrial safety
Mathematical models
Occupational safety
Quality assessment
Quality of life
Risk assessment
Risk factors
Safety management
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Summary:The paper describes changes of paradigm management in enterprise's industrial safety based on a risk-based approach. This method includes identifying, analyzing, forecasting the risks of industrial accidents as well as assessing the possible extent of their consequences. All calculations should be made in a timely manner to take the necessary measures to prevent accidents. The technological complexity of enterprises is a complex system consisting of various components. The risks of failure of these components pose a security risk. Critical enterprises monitoring systems are introduced in order to increase the level of safety. These systems monitor the state of the nodes of the technological complex and predict the behavior of key indicators for a given period. The effectiveness of industrial safety management depends on the accuracy of these predictions. Various methods can be used to assess forecast. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the criteria used to assess the quality of forecast models and recommendations for their usage in practical life. Various coefficients based on residuals are used to assess the applicability of a particular model. As shown in the results of our research, not all indicators should be used in industrial safety systems. This paper describes the results of the possibility for using various coefficients in training forecast models and for demonstrating an empirical assessment of the model.
ISSN:0973-1318
DOI:10.23940/ijpe.21.06.p4.519527