Determination of possible responses of Radon-222, magnetic effects, and total electron content to earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkiye: an ARIMA and Monte Carlo Simulation

Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a possible relationship between soil radon gas concentration and atmospheric total electron content (TEC) during earthquake...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2021-09, Vol.108 (3), p.2493-2512
Main Authors: Mohammed, Dawar Hama Khalid, Külahcı, Fatih, Muhammed, Ahmad
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Anomalies
Civil Engineering
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Earthquake forecasting
Earthquake prediction
Earthquakes
Environmental Management
Fault zones
Faults
Geomagnetic activity
Geophysics/Geodesy
Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences
Hydrogeology
Ionosphere
Magnetic effects
Monte Carlo simulation
Natural Hazards
Original Paper
Radon
Radon content
Radon isotopes
Seismic activity
Seismic response
Simulation
Soil gas
Soil gases
Statistical methods
Total Electron Content
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Summary:Around the world, earthquake forecasting studies have become very important nowadays due to the increase in number of fatal earthquakes annually. This paper proposes to achieve a possible relationship between soil radon gas concentration and atmospheric total electron content (TEC) during earthquakes taking into account magnetic effects on the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkiye. The ARIMA and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) are employed for determining radon gas concentrations by taking into account magnetic effects as an innovative approach. In the study area, relatively small and medium-scale earthquakes have taken place during the observation period. As a result of the investigations, the relationships between each of the parameters and earthquakes are determined; hence, a good relationship is obtained between Rn gas anomaly and micro-seismic activity. In the ionosphere, geomagnetic activity has a primary impact and long duration on TEC distribution, but due to micro-seismic events it has rather small influence. The proposed ARIMA and MCS simulations to detect changes in soil Rn gas concentrations have significant results for detecting micro-seismic activity anomalies.
ISSN:0921-030X
1573-0840
DOI:10.1007/s11069-021-04785-8