Comparing classical statistic and machine learning models in landslide susceptibility mapping in Ardanuc (Artvin), Turkey

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2021-09, Vol.108 (2), p.1515-1543
• Main Authors: Akinci, Halil, Zeybek, Mustafa
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Civil Engineering; Decision trees; Disaster management; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Emergency preparedness; Environmental Management; Geological hazards; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Hydrogeology; Land use; Landslides; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Natural Hazards; Original Paper; Predictions; Production methods; Regression analysis; Statistical analysis; Statistical methods; Success; Support vector machines; Susceptibility
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04743-4

Landslide susceptibility maps provide crucial information that helps local authorities, public institutions, and land-use planners make the correct decisions when they are managing landslide-prone areas. In recent years, machine-learning techniques have become very popular for producing landslide susceptibility maps. This study aims to compare the performance of these machine learning models with the traditional statistical methods used to produce landslide susceptibility maps. The landslide susceptibility for Ardanuc, Turkey was evaluated using three models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), and random forest (RF). Ten parameters that are effective in landslide occurrence are used in this study. The accuracy and prediction capabilities of the models were assessed using both the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and area under the curve (AUC) methods. According to the AUC method, the success rate of the LR, SVM, and RF models was 83.1%, 93.2%, and 98.3%, respectively. Further, the prediction rates were calculated as 82.9% (LR), 92.8% (SVM), and 97.7% (RF). According to the verification results, RF and SVM models outperformed the traditional LR model in terms of success and prediction rate. The RF model, however, performed better than the SVM model in terms of success and prediction rates. The landslide susceptibility maps produced as a result of this study can guide city planners, local administrators, and public institutions related to disaster management to prevent and reduce landslide hazards.