Mesoscale modelling of the summer climate response of Moscow metropolitan area to urban expansion

• Published in: IOP conference series. Earth and environmental science 2017-11, Vol.96 (1), p.12009
• Main Authors: Varentsov, M I, Konstantinov, P I, Samsonov, T E
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Climate models; Extreme heat; Metropolitan areas; Parameterization; Summer; Thermal simulation; Thermal stress; Urban development; Urban heat islands; Urban sprawl
• ISSN: 1755-1307; 1755-1315
• DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/96/1/012009

In this paper, the experience of applying a regional climate model to simulating the summer climate features of Moscow metropolitan area is examined. Also, an assessment is made of climate response to the implementation of a scenario of twofold city expansion. The model (COSMO-CLM) was adapted to the conditions of the region under investigation, supplemented by specific urban canopy parameterization and equipped with realistic parameters of urban surface. It was possible to successfully simulate the summer meteorological regime of Moscow region and, specifically, the temporal and spatial variability of the Moscow urban heat island (UHI). First results of the simulation for the city expansion show that the new urbanized areas on the periphery of Moscow have a heating impact on its central part, which leads to an increase of the UHI effect, on the average, of 10% (in the central area). In extreme heat events the temperature response to this scenario is much stronger, which may deteriorate human health and increase thermal stress. The simulation results also show that the city of Moscow is characterized by a positive anomaly of summer precipitation (in the city and its leeward side it increases by 10-30%). The scenario of urban expansion enhances this anomaly by 5-10% and increases its area.