Performance of a Bog Hydrological System Dynamics Simulation Model in an Ecological Restoration Context: Soomaa Case Study, Estonia

We describe how a bog hydrology simulation model, developed in the System Dynamics environment, predicts the changes in the groundwater levels that result from drainage ditch closure and partial thinning of the surrounding forest stand. Five plots were selected in an area that was subjected to such...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water (Basel) 2021-08, Vol.13 (16), p.2217
Main Authors: Java, Oskars, Kohv, Marko, Lõhmus, Asko
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Carbon
Climate change
Drainage ditches
Endangered & extinct species
Environmental restoration
Geology
Groundwater
Groundwater levels
Hydrology
Land use
Precipitation
Risk management
Scale models
Simulation
System dynamics
Vegetation
Watersheds
Wetlands
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Summary:We describe how a bog hydrology simulation model, developed in the System Dynamics environment, predicts the changes in the groundwater levels that result from drainage ditch closure and partial thinning of the surrounding forest stand. Five plots were selected in an area that was subjected to such ecological restoration, and the observed groundwater levels were compared with the simulated ones. Across the plots, the mean difference between the observed and simulated groundwater curves varied between 0.88 and 2.63 cm, and the RMSE between 0.28 and 0.71. Although the absolute difference between the predicted vs. observed values was greater in the plots with ditch closure, the curves co-varied more closely there over time. Therefore, hydrological System Dynamics models can be particularly useful for relative comparisons and risk-mapping of novel management scenarios.
ISSN:2073-4441
2073-4441
DOI:10.3390/w13162217