Projected Changes in Water Balance Components of 11 Large River Basins during the 21st Century and Their Uncertainties

Changes in the water balance components of 11 large-scale river basins due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four RCP climatic scenarios. An analysis of 20 pro...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Water resources 2021-09, Vol.48 (5), p.666-675
Main Authors: Nasonova, O. N., Gusev, Ye. M., Kovalev, E. E., Ayzel, G. V., Chebanova, M. K.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
21st century
Aquatic Pollution
Atmospheric models
Climate change
Climate models
Climatic analysis
Components
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
Evapotranspiration
Global climate
Global climate models
Hydrogeology
Hydrology/Water Resources
Land surface models
River basins
River discharge
River flow
River runoff
Rivers
Runoff
Uncertainty
Waste Water Technology
Water balance
Water balance components
Water Management
Water Pollution Control
Water Resources and the Regime of Water Bodies
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Summary:Changes in the water balance components of 11 large-scale river basins due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four RCP climatic scenarios. An analysis of 20 projections of changes in climatic precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century for each river basin made it possible to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different RCP scenarios and GCMs. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected climatic values of the water balance components is nearly twice as large as the contribution of RCP scenarios in the first projected period and then slightly decreases with time.
ISSN:0097-8078
1608-344X
DOI:10.1134/S0097807821050158