A Closed-Loop Framework for Inference, Prediction, and Control of SIR Epidemics on Networks

• Published in: IEEE transactions on network science and engineering 2021-07, Vol.8 (3), p.2262-2278
• Main Authors: Hota, Ashish R., Godbole, Jaydeep, Pare, Philip E.
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Bayesian Inference; Coronaviruses; COVID-19; Disease control; Epidemic Processes on Networks; Epidemics; Geometric Programming; Inference; Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; Nonlinear Observer; Optimization; Parameter Estimation; Resource allocation; Resource management; SIR Epidemic Model; Sociology; Statistics; Testing
• ISSN: 2327-4697; 2334-329X
• DOI: 10.1109/TNSE.2021.3085866

Motivated by the ongoing pandemic COVID-19, we propose a closed-loop framework that combines inference from testing data, learning the parameters of the dynamics and optimal resource allocation for controlling the spread of the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic on networks. Our framework incorporates several key factors present in testing data, such as the fact that high risk individuals are more likely to undergo testing. We then present two tractable optimization problems to evaluate the trade-off between controlling the growth-rate of the epidemic and the cost of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). We illustrate the significance of the proposed closed-loop framework via extensive simulations and analysis of real, publicly-available testing data for COVID-19. Our results illustrate the significance of early testing and the emergence of a second wave of infections if NPIs are prematurely withdrawn.