The Persistence of Harvest Shocks in Medieval England

I present evidence that shocks to the Medieval English harvest persisted. Hypothesized mechanisms include varying supplies of seed corn and other complementary harvest inputs. Peasants are modeled as trading off current consumption against grain stores and sow rates so that subsistence-level shocks...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The Journal of economic history 2019-12, Vol.79 (4), p.954-988
Main Author: Bekar, Cliff T.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Consumption
Corn
Economic history
Food consumption
Grain
Harvest
Households
Hypotheses
Peasants
Price elasticity
Prices
Trading
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Summary:I present evidence that shocks to the Medieval English harvest persisted. Hypothesized mechanisms include varying supplies of seed corn and other complementary harvest inputs. Peasants are modeled as trading off current consumption against grain stores and sow rates so that subsistence-level shocks may persist. For my sample I find that a failed harvest increased the probability of subsequent harvest failure by 20–30 percent. Grain yields are analyzed as a strongly balanced panel by year, manor, and crop. While I reject the hypothesis that harvests were self-contained annual events, I caution against linking harvest persistence directly to runs in grain prices.
ISSN:0022-0507
1471-6372
DOI:10.1017/S0022050719000524