The effect and prediction of diurnal temperature range in high altitude area on outpatient and emergency room admissions for cardiovascular diseases

• Published in: International archives of occupational and environmental health 2021-11, Vol.94 (8), p.1783-1795
• Main Authors: Zhu, Wenzhi, Wei, Xingfu, Zhang, Li, Shi, Qin, Shi, Guoxiu, Zhang, Xiaofei, Wang, Minzhen, Yin, Chun, Kang, Feng, Bai, Yana, Nie, Yonghong, Zheng, Shan
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Aged; Air Pollution - analysis; Altitude; Cardiovascular diseases; Cardiovascular Diseases - epidemiology; China - epidemiology; Climate change; Coronary artery disease; Diurnal; Earth and Environmental Science; Emergency medical care; Emergency medical services; Emergency Service, Hospital - statistics & numerical data; Environment; Environmental Health; Female; Global climate; Heart diseases; Heating; High altitude; Hospitalization - statistics & numerical data; Humans; Hypertension; Ischemia; Male; Occupational Medicine/Industrial Medicine; Original Article; Outpatients - statistics & numerical data; Predictions; Regression models; Rehabilitation; Temperature
• ISSN: 0340-0131; 1432-1246
• DOI: 10.1007/s00420-021-01699-7

Purpose Diurnal temperature range (DTR) is a meteorological indicator closely associated with global climate change. Thus, we aim to explore the effects of DTR on the outpatient and emergency room (O&ER) admissions for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and related predictive research. Methods The O&ER admissions data for CVDs from three general hospitals in Jinchang of Gansu Province were collected from 2013 to 2016. A generalized additive model (GAM) with Poisson regression was employed to analyze the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases, hypertension, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stoke. GAM was also used to preform predictive research of the effect of DTR on the O&ER admissions for CVDs. Results There were similar positive linear relationships between DTR and the O&ER visits with the four cardiovascular diseases. And the cumulative lag effects were higher than the single lag effects. A 1 °C increase in DTR corresponded to a 1.30% (0.99–1.62%) increase in O&ER admissions for all cardiovascular diseases. Males and elderly were more sensitivity to DTR. The estimates in non-heating season were higher than in heating season. The trial prediction accuracy rate of CVDs based on DTR was between 59.32 and 74.40%. Conclusions DTR has significantly positive association with O&ER admissions for CVDs, which can be used as a prediction index of the admissions of O&ER with CVDs.