Bus Load Forecasting Method of Power System Based on VMD and Bi-LSTM

The effective prediction of bus load can provide an important basis for power system dispatching and planning and energy consumption to promote environmental sustainable development. A bus load forecasting method based on variational modal decomposition (VMD) and bidirectional long short-term memory...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Sustainability 2021-10, Vol.13 (19), p.10526
Main Authors: Tang, Jiajie, Zhao, Jie, Zou, Hongliang, Ma, Gaoyuan, Wu, Jun, Jiang, Xu, Zhang, Huaixun
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accuracy
Agricultural commodities
Bandwidths
Bayesian analysis
Decomposition
Electrical loads
Energy consumption
Forecasting
Long short-term memory
Methods
Neural networks
Optimization algorithms
Prediction models
Signal processing
Support vector machines
Sustainability
Sustainable development
Time series
Wavelet transforms
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Summary:The effective prediction of bus load can provide an important basis for power system dispatching and planning and energy consumption to promote environmental sustainable development. A bus load forecasting method based on variational modal decomposition (VMD) and bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) network was proposed in this article. Firstly, the bus load series was decomposed into a group of relatively stable subsequence components by VMD to reduce the interaction between different trend information. Then, a time series prediction model based on Bi-LSTM was constructed for each sub sequence, and Bayesian theory was used to optimize the sub sequence-related hyperparameters and judge whether the sequence uses Bi-LSTM to improve the prediction accuracy of a single model. Finally, the bus load prediction value was obtained by superimposing the prediction results of each subsequence. The example results show that compared with the traditional prediction algorithm, the proposed method can better track the change trend of bus load, and has higher prediction accuracy and stability.
ISSN:2071-1050
2071-1050
DOI:10.3390/su131910526