Applicability of Multimodel Ensemble Prediction of Heavy Precipitation for the Perm Region: A Case Study for the Summer of 2019

The multimodel ensemble technique for predicting heavy rain ( 15 mm/12 hours) in the Perm region with a lead time of 15 and 27 hours is analyzed. The quality of precipitation forecasts from GFS, GEM, ICON global hydrodynamic models and from the WRF-ARW model with 3- and 9-km grid spacing is assessed...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published in:Russian meteorology and hydrology 2021-07, Vol.46 (7), p.444-453
Main Authors: Vetrov, A. L., Kostarev, S. V.
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Atmospheric precipitations
Atmospheric Sciences
Earth and Environmental Science
Earth Sciences
False alarms
Heavy precipitation
Hydrodynamic models
Lead time
Mathematical models
Meteorology
Precipitation
Precipitation forecasting
Probability theory
Rain
Rainfall
Rainfall forecasting
Summer
Weather forecasting
Citations: Items that this one cites
Items that cite this one
Online Access:Get full text
Tags: Add Tag
No Tags, Be the first to tag this record!
Description
Summary:The multimodel ensemble technique for predicting heavy rain ( 15 mm/12 hours) in the Perm region with a lead time of 15 and 27 hours is analyzed. The quality of precipitation forecasts from GFS, GEM, ICON global hydrodynamic models and from the WRF-ARW model with 3- and 9-km grid spacing is assessed. For the summer of 2019, the GEM was found to provide the highest quality of heavy rain forecasts. The averaging over the ensemble of global models causes a sharp decrease in the number of false alarms and in the probability of detection. The scheme of global models combination consisting in the filtration of the GEM heavy rain forecasts and in the averaging of GFS, GEM, and ICON forecasts at the remaining points is developed. Application of the proposed scheme increases the reliability of short-range forecasts of heavy frontal rains in summer in the Perm region as compared to any separate model.
ISSN:1068-3739
1934-8096
DOI:10.3103/S1068373921070037