The Impact of Pre-Election Protests in Electoral Autocracies: The Case of Hong Kong's Anti-ELAB Movement

Scholars of electoral autocracies accord far more attention to post-election protests than pre-election ones, as the former have the potential to trigger a regime transition. We argue that pre-election protests can have a significant effect on election outcomes. In particular, they are likely to dee...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Issues and studies - Institute of International Relations 2021-09, Vol.57 (3), p.1-21
Main Authors: 黃鶴回(STAN HOK-WUI WONG), 陳雋文(KELVIN CHUN-MAN CHAN)
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Age
Attitudes
Authoritarianism
Autocracy
Councils
Demonstrations & protests
Elections
Immigrants
Influence
Opposition parties
Political attitudes
Public opinion
Social unrest
Voter behavior
Voter turnout
Voters
Voting
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Summary:Scholars of electoral autocracies accord far more attention to post-election protests than pre-election ones, as the former have the potential to trigger a regime transition. We argue that pre-election protests can have a significant effect on election outcomes. In particular, they are likely to deepen social cleavages along two dimensions: age and immigrant status. The 2019 social unrest in Hong Kong provides a unique opportunity to evaluate the electoral impact of pre-election protests. Comparing public opinion data related to the 2019 and 2015 District Council elections, we find strong empirical support for our argument, as immigrant status and age are strong predictors of voting choices and voter turnout. Our findings imply that exposure to democratic protests may not help in bridging the gap in political attitudes between immigrants and natives.
ISSN:1013-2511
2529-802X
DOI:10.1142/S1013251121500107