Reexamining the Effect of Refugees on Civil Conflict: A Global Subnational Analysis

A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the su...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:The American political science review 2021-11, Vol.115 (4), p.1175-1196
Main Authors: ZHOU, YANG-YANG, SHAVER, ANDREW
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Access to Health Care
Casualties
Community Relations
Conflict
Economic activity
Evidence
Humanitarian aid
Humanitarianism
Local conditions
Migration
Numbers
Political science
Population Distribution
Provinces
Refugees
Selection bias
Statistical Data
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Summary:A large literature suggests that the presence of refugees is associated with greater risk of conflict. We argue that the positive effects of hosting refugees on local conditions have been overlooked. Using global data from 1990 to 2018 on locations of refugee communities and civil conflict at the subnational level, we find no evidence that hosting refugees increases the likelihood of new conflict, prolongs existing conflict, or raises the number of violent events or casualties. Furthermore, we explore conditions where provinces are likely to experience substantively large decreases in conflict risk due to increased development. Analysis examining nighttime lights as a measure of development, coupled with expert interviews, support our claim. To address the possibility of selection bias, we use placebo tests and matching. Our research challenges assertions that refugees are security risks. Instead, we show that in many cases, hosting refugees can encourage local development and even conflict reduction.
ISSN:0003-0554
1537-5943
DOI:10.1017/S0003055421000502