Optimal decision making in post-hazard bridge recovery strategies for transportation networks after seismic events

• Published in: Geomatics, natural hazards and risk natural hazards and risk, 2021-01, Vol.12 (1), p.2629-2653
• Main Authors: Yoon, Sungsik, Suh, Wonho, Lee, Young-Joo
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: artificial neural network; Artificial neural networks; Benefit-cost analysis; Bridges; Cost analysis; Cost benefit analysis; Decision making; Earthquake damage; Earthquakes; Economics; Geographic information systems; Geographical information systems; Information systems; Mathematical models; Monte Carlo simulation; Neural networks; Numerical analysis; optimal restoration strategy; Performance evaluation; Recovery; Remote sensing; Restoration; Risk management; Robustness (mathematics); Seismic activity; seismic resilience; Sensitivity analysis; Statistical methods; Strategy; total system travel time; Training; transportation network; Transportation networks; Travel time
• ISSN: 1947-5705; 1947-5713
• DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2021.1961881

In this study, optimal post-hazard bridge recovery strategies were proposed for transportation networks under seismic conditions. To predict the performance of the transportation network, a robust performance measure, total system travel time (TSTT), was employed, and an artificial neural network (ANN)-based surrogate model was developed to enable an accelerated Monte Carlo analysis. In addition, a sensitivity analysis based on the benefit-cost ratio was proposed to support optimal decision making immediately after an earthquake. To demonstrate the proposed methodology, an actual transportation network in South Korea was adopted, and a network map was reconstructed based on geographic information system (GIS) data. A surrogate model for network performance evaluation was constructed using training data generated based on historical earthquake epicenters. In addition, the damage ratio and required recovery days according to the damage states of bridges were employed to perform network recovery analysis. For the numerical analysis, a limited budget was set for each scenario, and the recovery and damage curve were compared with existing priority strategy. The numerical results showed that the priority strategy of bridge restoration determined through the benefit-cost analysis generated a faster recovery curve and significantly reduced the damage, as compared to existing strategy. Therefore, it is concluded that the proposed methodology enables optimal decision making and also helps risk management that can minimize the economic damage.