C-LLAMA 1.0: a traceable model for food, agriculture, and land use

• Published in: Geoscientific Model Development 2022-02, Vol.15 (2), p.929-949
• Main Authors: Ball, Thomas S, Vaughan, Naomi E, Powell, Thomas W, Lovett, Andrew, Lenton, Timothy M
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Agricultural land; Agriculture; Analysis; Animal products; Carbon sequestration; Climate change; Crop production; Crop yield; Datasets; Developed countries; Diet; Empirical analysis; Empirical models; Food; Food availability; Food production; Food supply; Foods; Land area; Land use; Mathematical models; Modelling; Paris Agreement; Population; Sensitivity analysis
• ISSN: 1991-9603; 1991-959X; 1991-962X; 1991-9603; 1991-962X
• DOI: 10.5194/gmd-15-929-2022

We present C-LLAMA 1.0 (Country-level Land Availability Model for Agriculture), a statistical–empirical model of the global food and agriculture system. C-LLAMA uses simplistic and highly traceable methods to provide an open and transparent approach to modelling the sensitivity of future agricultural land use to drivers such as diet, crop yields, and food-system efficiency. C-LLAMA uses publicly available FAOSTAT food supply, food production, and crop yield data to make linear projections of diet, food-system, and agricultural efficiencies, as well as land use at a national level, aiming to capture aspects of food systems in both developing and developed nations. In this paper we describe the structure and processes within the model, outline an anchor scenario, and perform sensitivity analyses of key components. The model land use output behaves as anticipated during sensitivity tests and under a scenario with a prescribed reduction in animal product consumption, in which land use for agriculture is reduced by 1.8 Gha in 2050 when compared with the anchor scenario.