Tree failure prediction model (TFPM): machine learning techniques comparison in failure hazard assessment of Platanus orientalis in urban forestry

• Published in: Natural hazards (Dordrecht) 2022, Vol.110 (2), p.881-898
• Main Authors: Jahani, Ali, Saffariha, Maryam
• Format: Article
• Language: English
• Subjects: Anthropogenic factors; Artificial intelligence; Civil Engineering; Decision support systems; Defects; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Ecological conditions; Environmental Management; Failure; Forest ecosystems; Forestry; Geophysics/Geodesy; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Green infrastructure; Hazard assessment; Hydrogeology; Learning algorithms; Machine learning; Modelling; Multilayer perceptrons; Natural Hazards; Neural networks; Original Paper; Platanus orientalis; Prediction models; Radial basis function; Sensitivity analysis; Soil depth; Support vector machines; Surveying; Terrestrial ecosystems; Training; Trees; Urban forests
• ISSN: 0921-030X; 1573-0840
• DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-04972-7

Trees are generally harmed by multitude factors consisting of ecological condition and anthropogenic pressures in the cities. This study compares the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) and support vector machine (SVM) models for Platanus orientalis trees failure prediction in urban forest ecosystems by a detailed field survey of P. orientalis trees issues. Therefore, we recorded 12 variables in 500 target trees which are categorized into in to two groups: (1) tree variables, and (2) tree defects and disorders. We developed the tree failure prediction model (TFPM) to predict the year of trees failure by artificial intelligence techniques. Compared to MLP and RBFNN, the SVM model represents the highest entity of R 2 in training (0.99), test (0.986) and all (0.989) data sets. In sensitivity analysis, the classes of tree hazard are sensitive to three variables which are: soil depth, cracks and cavities, and wind protected, respectively. The results of SVM modeling, with 97.5% classification accuracy, in comparison with MLP (94%) and RBFNN (87.9%), in test samples, introduced TFPM SVM as an ecological failure hazard assessment model for P. orientalis . Such as other prediction model in urban trees management, TFPM SVM was developed for urban forest and green spaces managers to assess the hazard of old P. orientalis trees failure for precaution actions planning timely. TFPM SVM as an environmental decision support system is applicable where the old and hazardous trees could be rehabilitated or removed before any unexpected failure occurs.