The Impact of COVID-19 on Trump’s Electoral Demise: The Role of Economic and Democratic Accountability

Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump’s electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump’s popular support across all partisan groups, and...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in:Perspectives on politics 2022-03, Vol.20 (1), p.170-186
Main Authors: Neundorf, Anja, Pardos-Prado, Sergi
Format: Article
Language:English
Subjects:
Accountability
Competence
Coronaviruses
COVID-19
Economic theory
Elections
Medical records
Pandemics
Partisanship
Political parties
Populism
Presidential elections
Prospects
Public health
Public opinion
Respondents
Voting
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Summary:Did the COVID-19 crisis have a significant effect on Trump’s electoral demise? We present survey experimental evidence on two substantial effects of the pandemic. First, information on the unprecedented economic downturn significantly depressed Trump’s popular support across all partisan groups, and especially among middle-low and low-income respondents. Second, being primed on the poor public health record of the Trump administration reduced its electoral prospects among citizens between 55 and 70 years old. We conclude that the 2020 election was a normal contest compatible with theories of economic voting and political competence. Our results suggest that democratic accountability can be a powerful determinant of the fate of populist leaders once in power.
ISSN:1537-5927
1541-0986
DOI:10.1017/S1537592721001961